The government's signal failures, such as
its welfare and administrative reforms, did not happen
by some evil design, however. The very structure of the
presidential administration, particularly its lack of
transparency and press access, is unsuitable for
strategic planning, just like the sectional system of
the Communist Party Central Committee, the least
effective part of the Soviet system of governance. The
ease with which carelessly drafted bills sailed through
the State Duma only served to compound the Kremlin's
isolation.
Rather than getting to work on the
government's plans for economic reform, Finance Minister
Alexei Kudrin and Economic Development and Trade
Minister German Gref have become their own PR managers.
You'd think they were running an endless election
campaign against unknown but very powerful opponents.
Meanwhile, Voter Number One didn't seem terribly
interested in what was happening. Fradkov's latest idea
-- that the security services should help business do
business -- wasn't even a last cry for help; it was more
like his first words on the threshold of purgatory.
Who could take over as prime minister
and restore command and control within the government
itself, as well as increasing the government's political
heft in relation to the presidential administration?
A year ago, the pundits were simply
trying to guess who the new prime minister would be.
This time around, it makes sense to discuss the possible
candidates in advance. Who knows? After the grim
experience of the past year, Putin might be open to
recommendations.
The new premier's second urgent task,
restoring the government's control of economic policy,
rules out a number of candidates who could handle the
political heavy lifting involved in the first. On the
other hand, excellent managers such as Igor Shuvalov,
Putin's senior economic aide, Arkady Dvorkovich, the
head of the presidential administration's expert
department, and Sergei Kiriyenko, presidential envoy in
the Volga Federal District and a former prime minister,
don't yet possess the necessary political weight to
handle the political aspects of the job.
Appointing Defense Minister Sergei
Ivanov or State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov wouldn't
solve the "separation of powers" issue, though for
different reasons. Gref and Kudrin have proven their
ability to survive in difficult conditions, but no more
than that. Former Audit Chamber chief and Prime Minister
Sergei Stepashin would be a good choice. He has a wealth
of experience and possesses caution and moderate
ambitions, very important qualities in the current
political climate.
All the same, I propose bringing back
Fradkov's predecessor, Mikhail Kasyanov. Like Stepashin,
he's not likely to devour anyone. It was on his watch
that Russia's economy grew by leaps and bounds. And
appointing Kasyanov would constitute both an attempt to
return to the good old days of 2002 and a tacit apology
for an unsuccessful 2004.
Konstantin Sonin is an assistant
professor at the New Economic School/CEFIR.
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