This may seem an obvious point to make.
Your chances of hitting the lottery are clearly greater
if you're allowed to pick your numbers after the winning
combination has been announced. The urge to make a wager
in a very risky game may nonetheless win out, though it
would require us to ensure that the right man wins on
election day.
History teaches, however, that "our man"
is not the candidate who seems favorably disposed to
Russia before the election, but the candidate who is
willing to work with us after he has won. If Viktor
Yushchenko is elected, the necessity to preserve
Ukraine's territorial integrity will tie him to Russia
far more strongly than any campaign promises. And if
Viktor Yanukovych is elected, his position will depend
least of all on secret deals made before the votes were
cast.
Promises that candidates make to the
voters, unlike those made behind closed doors, are
normally kept -- more or less. And not just because the
man who wins on Sunday will be eligible to run for a
second term. Campaign promises, as a rule, reflect the
real political situation in the country, and that won't
change come Monday morning.
By announcing that the first round of
Ukraine's presidential election was a dead heat, the
Central Elections Commission has done Russia a great
service. The first-round result amounted to a political
declaration that Sunday's runoff vote will be won by the
candidate who receives the most votes. The track record
of Ukraine's Supreme Court on election issues also
provides reason to believe that any intervention it
might be called upon to undertake in the election
process would be aimed at determining the true result,
not distorting it.
For his part, President Vladimir Putin
should take steps to ensure that outgoing Ukrainian
President Leonid Kuchma hands over power peacefully.
Leaders of other countries would doubtless be more than
happy to help him in this endeavor. Whether the loser in
Sunday's runoff concedes defeat or the Supreme Court is
called upon to declare the winner, the next president of
Ukraine will be either Yushchenko or Yanukovych. If
Russia has to offer Kuchma political asylum -- even a
luxurious villa and a private yacht -- to make sure this
happens, we can afford to do so.
Those who are concerned with Russia's
status and influence on the international stage should
realize that the Ukrainian election gives this country a
unique opportunity to be the strict but fair elder
within the Commonwealth of Independent States, not just
the toughest guy on the block. The elder doesn't have to
get worked up and stick his nose into everyone else's
business to establish order. All he has to do is walk
down the street, surveying the scene with a serious
gaze, and order will be established on its own.
Konstantin Sonin is an assistant
professor at the New Economic School/CEFIR.
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