Yet the examples of Yukos, on the one hand,
and of Gazprom and Rosneft -- widely considered the
least efficient companies in the Russian oil and gas
sector -- on the other provide convincing proof of the
contrary. Yukos, a company that restructured, increased
efficiency and successfully gained access to new markets
is becoming extinct; Gazprom and Rosneft, which have
done none of these things, will survive.
What's more, Gazprom's acquisition of
Rosneft will automatically make the enormous unified
company more attractive to investors simply because of
its power to influence market prices. In terms of
overall market efficiency -- that is, taking into
account the merger's impact on consumers as well as
companies -- this is, of course, a bad thing.
So has basic economic theory been
overturned? Quite the opposite. The case of Gazprom and
Rosneft confirms the theory. The success of these
companies has nothing to do with the laws of the market,
and everything to do with the current economic climate
in which lack of transparency (above all) and proximity
to power at the highest levels (which is very difficult
for a transparent company to maintain) are the best
possible strategy for corporate survival.
None of this would bear mention,
however, if the government were not currently pursuing
an economic policy intended primarily to prolong and
even develop the environment in which monsters like
Gazprom thrive. It would, for example, be highly
surprising if reports -- or at least rumors -- didn't
surface soon about upcoming mega-mergers in the ferrous
metals sector.
For the economist, the problem is not
that the timing of President Vladimir Putin's approval
of the Gazprom-Rosneft merger was obviously dictated by
political considerations, but that the president seems
sincerely to believe that restoring the discredited
Soviet system of economic management is the best thing
for the Russian economy today.
The Soviet Union was many things to many
people: a gigantic social experiment or a meat grinder
that chewed up the best and brightest; a superpower or a
scarecrow on the world stage; the land of happy
childhood or totalitarian childhood.
But the Soviet Union was most definitely
not a successful economic experiment.
One of the most distinctive traits of
the Soviet economic model, especially in the last 20
years of its existence, was a lack of natural selection.
Inefficient enterprises weren't closed down, nor was
there even a mechanism in place for doing so. In fact,
inefficiency frequently ensured a comfortable existence
for the managers.
When presented with proposals for new
enterprises, the political leadership was most likely to
approve the most outlandish and expensive of the bunch.
I could mention the Belarus tractor plant or the plan to
reverse the major rivers of Siberia and send them
flowing south into Central Asia. But all of this was
described in great detail by the newspapers -- 15 years
ago.
Konstantin Sonin is an assistant
professor at the New Economic School/CEFIR.