Reform doesn't happen on paper, even when
it comes to the Constitution. Reform involves changing
the way people think. The bill replacing benefits with
cash payments -- a necessary measure, though the
government has done little to explain why -- will soon
be signed into law. After a while those canceled
benefits will be quietly restored, because if most
Russians think they're better off with benefits, every
politician from the president on down will have an
incentive to cash in on their discontent.
In fact, benefits are already making a
comeback. Benefits for the country's most powerful
pressure group, the state bureaucracy, are being
significantly expanded. Another group with serious
political heft, Muscovites, look certain to retain many
of their benefits. There's no question that implementing
necessary but unpopular reforms is more difficult when
you play by the rules of democracy; that is, making the
case for reforms and winning popular support before
implementing them. But the results are far better and
they last longer.
Economic Development and Trade Minister
German Gref would have a hard time pushing for benefits
reform. It's unlikely that he would have traded access
to the Grand Palace at the Peterhof museum, where his
wedding was held in April, for a cash payment.
Health and Social Development Minister
Mikhail Zurabov blamed negative reaction to the bill on
the government's "totally ineffective system of
disseminating information to the public." In the Soviet
era, Zurabov explained, the plenum of the Communist
Party Central Committee would meet, and a decree would
be issued the next day. "This decree was carried by all
media outlets. Within 24 hours, Central Committee
members had to confirm that plenary sessions had been
held by party committees at the regional and district
levels and by central party committees in the various
republics. Within two days, similar meetings took place
at the lower levels. The media informed the public of
this process. As a result, even the laziest machine
operator would learn during his political education hour
that something had been decided."
United Russia deputies were given
instructions on how to explain the bill to the voters,
though you'd think the party's deputies, who represent
the interests of the so-called Putin majority, would
know how to do this on their own. But assuming that
voters don't know why deputies vote the way they do
would be the height of arrogance and naivete. The voters
know.
I still have a few unanswered questions.
Boris Gryzlov, head of United Russia and speaker of the
Duma, is a likely candidate for the presidency in 2008.
Does he think the voters will forget which legislators
cast their votes without even reading the bills they
were voting on? They might have forgotten if the
benefits bill were a one-off, but how many unpopular
bills remain to be passed? Then again, if another
probable candidate, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov,
intends to make the cancellation of draft deferments a
major campaign issue, Gryzlov might just stand a chance
after all.
Konstantin Sonin is an assistant
professor at the New Economic School/CEFIR.
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