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According to some surveys, 77
percent of Russian citizens support the idea of
revisiting the results of privatization. It should come
as no surprise that the majority of the population
favors a redistribution of property, as it simply
reflects the fact that the majority is poor, while a
minority is very rich. However, any mass asset
redistribution aimed at reducing inequality is doomed to
failure. At best, Russia will find itself caught in an
endless cycle of property redistribution followed by its
concentration again.
A decade after economic
reforms were launched, most productive assets are
concentrated in the hands of a few individuals, the
so-called oligarchs. Although the majority of Russians
attribute this state of affairs to the flawed
privatization process, this is not necessarily the
case.
It is only natural that when
property rights are poorly protected, control rights
over assets become concentrated. Moreover, the larger a
single owner's share is, the greater their incentives
are to pursue improvements, such as improving corporate
governance. Recent cross-country studies show that the
worse the general protection and enforcement of property
rights are, the greater the concentration of control
rights.
Therefore, even if a more
"fair" distribution of property, resulting in a more
equal distribution of wealth, could be achieved, it
would not stay that way for very long.
Dependent courts and corrupt
bureaucrats do not allow economic agents to fully enjoy
the fruits of their labor unless control rights are
highly concentrated.
Unfortunately, we do not have
examples of major redistribution of shareholder capital
by means of reforms. However, the countries of Latin
America do provide a good example of redistribution in
the area of land ownership.
In the 20th century, many
Latin American countries were drawn into an endless
cycle of redistribution. Typically, the poor and
unfranchised would put political pressure on the rich
elite, e.g., by threatening revolution, as a result of
which democratization would take place. As the
government became more sensitive to the interests of the
median voter (who is inevitably poor in countries with
huge asset inequality), reforms were implemented,
including redistribution of land from the rich to the
poor. Then the rich elite would mount a coup (usually
with the active involvement of the military, although
they were often relatively bloodless). After the coup,
the elite would use its political power to seize
property back from the poor (in many instances, the land
was returned to pre-reform owners). As time passed,
political pressure or the threat of revolution would
force the elite to extend the franchise and establish
democracy. A left-wing populist would come to power and
the cycle start all over again.
For example, Argentina's
first elections with universal male suffrage were held
in 1912. In 1930, democracy was overthrown by a coup.
Elections were held again in 1946 and a coup was mounted
in 1955. New elections were held in 1973, democracy fell
to a coup in 1976, only to be reinstated in 1983. During
that time, the country -- whose per capita GDP had been
80 percent of the United States' in 1946 -- stagnated
economically for almost half a century.
Following military coups in
Venezuela in 1948, Guatemala in 1954 and Chile in 1973,
a significant share of land redistributed by reforms
preceding the coups was handed back to the previous
owners. In Guatemala, it was the land reform of 1952. In
Brazil, the coup of 1964 was mounted after the
democratically elected president pushed through
agricultural reform paving the way for significant land
redistribution.
Although a right-wing
military coup seems completely unrealistic in Russia,
there is a lesson to be drawn. The threat of forced
property redistribution makes the rich spend enormous
amounts of money on maintaining their political power.
From the standpoint of GDP growth, this is a waste: Both
asset redistribution and any activity to oppose
redistribution are by definition unproductive
activities.
There is no doubt that
inequality carries with it substantial costs for the
economy. In the long run, the main cost comes from the
fact that wealth inequality results in unequal
opportunities, and thus capital often does not end up in
the hands of those who would employ it most efficiently.
In the short run, economic inequality is closely
associated with political inequality, which in turn
leads to low demand for good market institutions -- such
as institutions to protect property rights.
In short, the rich do not
have an interest in independent courts or an efficient
bureaucracy. Instead, they maintain private systems for
protecting their property rights, which in turn
jeopardize the property rights of others, and don't give
the rich an incentive to demand a high level of property
rights protection from the state.
There is one more problem
related to inequality: The nature of the redistribution
game makes it impossible for the authorities and big
business to strike a deal.
Thus, it is conceivable that
many rich people today would agree to sacrifice a
substantial part of their wealth in return for a
guarantee that there would be no further redistribution
in the future. Unfortunately, however, the state cannot
give such guarantees. And another problem is that the
more of his wealth an oligarch sacrifices, the weaker he
becomes and the easier it will be demand money from him
the next time.
In Latin America, transitions
to or from democracy followed by property redistribution
happened for the most part in periods of economic
recession. In this respect, the recent attack on Russian
big business is unusual since the economy is growing at
a fast rate.
One might think that nobody
needs economic growth in Russia except ordinary
citizens, the government and the president -- and that
an oligarch is only interested in GDP growth insofar as
his own wealth grows with the whole economy.
This logic, however, is
flawed. For oligarchs, sustainable growth is much more
important, as it protects them from those who would seek
to question the legitimacy of their ownership rights. If
those voters that favor a new round of property
redistribution (77 percent of the electorate,
apparently) were represented by a popular left-wing
movement or an elected politician (and it cannot be
ruled out that President Vladimir Putin could assume
such a role), the haves might face awkward questions
about how they obtained their property. However, while
the economy is growing these questions tend to recede
into the background.
In other words, those who
think that privatization was conducted unfairly are not
that much concerned with those who took the lion's share
of the pie, as long as the pie itself is growing.
What can oligarchs do to
support economic growth? The first thing they can do is
to reduce their spending on unproductive activities --
including the corruption of bureaucrats and courts.
However, they face a coordination problem much like the
participants in an arms race. It may be beneficial for
each oligarch if all oligarchs reduce their investment
in the private protection of property rights. However,
each of them rationally foresees that once he reduces
his investment in private protection, others will
respond by increasing theirs, thus making his productive
investments less profitable.
Privatization and the
subsequent events of the 1990s have resulted in a
dramatically uneven distribution of wealth in Russia.
There is little doubt that it has had and continues to
have a negative effect on economic development. However,
a new round of forced redistribution will not improve
the situation. Rather, Russia could be drawn into an
endless cycle of property redistribution from rich to
poor and vice versa. Needless to say, the absence of
economic growth for the duration of such a period is a
foregone conclusion.
Konstantin Sonin is an
assistant professor at the New Economic School and
senior economist at CEFIR. This comment first appeared
in
Vedomosti.
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